Researchers find war-related Polymarket bets win 52% of low-odds wagers
New analysis of Polymarket data indicates outsized wins on low-probability bets tied to military events. The Anti-Corruption Data Collective reviewed more than 400,000 settled markets, focusing on wagers of at least $2,500 placed at below 35 percent implied probability. Platform-wide, these bets paid out 14 percent. In defense and military markets, they paid out 52 percent. Authors: David Szakonyi, Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, and Michael Hornsby. Publication date: September 17, 2026.
The research follows U.S. charges against serviceman Gannon Ken Van Dyke, accused of using classified information about the January 2026 operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to place Polymarket bets that prosecutors say yielded about $400,000. He has pleaded not guilty, with trial expected later this year. A public, pseudonymous on-chain bet can signal sensitive operational details. Other traders may imitate profitable moves without knowing the source. Intelligence services can monitor the chain alongside other signals.
El FBI le puso los ganchos a un soldado Delta Force (Sargento Maestro – Gannon Ken Van Dyke), que participó y planificó la captura de Maduro el 3 de enero, pero 1 semana antes abrió una cuenta en Polymarket y apostó $32.537, obtuvo una ganancia de $413.062 (1.242%). (Sigue) 1/4. pic.twitter.com/LsW4BeNup2
— HevercastroB (@HeverCastroB) April 24, 2026
Regulatory and historical context
The Pentagon’s DARPA-backed Policy Analysis Market under the FutureMAP program proposed trading contracts on regime stability and terrorism-related events, then was canceled in July 2003 after bipartisan backlash. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission resolved charges against Polymarket in 2021–2022 for offering unregistered event contracts and imposed a civil penalty of about $1.4 million. These actions signaled that prediction markets fall under existing commodities law.
Mechanism: on-chain signals and market impact
Polymarket records trades on-chain, making wagers, funding sources, and winnings publicly visible. The international site generally does not require identity checks, unlike its U.S. arm and Kalshi. Contracts trade from $0 to $1 and pay $1 on the correct outcome. The researchers identified 152 specialized wallets, labeled “Orcas,” that collectively won more than $8 million. On the riskiest bets, their average win rate exceeded 97 percent. Larger “Whale” accounts and automated services appeared to follow these wallets, amplifying a single informed trade into visible odds movement. The anomalous pattern indicates structural information leakage from on-chain transparency. The data do not establish insider status for each wallet.
Implications: publicly observable trades can transmit sensitive signals in real time; copy trading can concentrate profits and move odds; regulators have precedent for action against event-based contracts; defense-related markets show atypical payoff rates on low-probability bets.
The post appeared first on Coinspeaker.
