30-year Treasury yield hits 5.35%, highest since 2007

The 10-year Treasury yield has returned to its highest level since 2023, and the 30-year yield is at 5.35%, matching 2007 levels. US Treasury actions have not curtailed the rise in yields.

Short-run drivers

An end to the Iran conflict and relief in the global energy crisis would be the most immediate catalysts to push yields lower.

Structural factors

Persistent fiscal deficits and compounding inflation are elevating yields structurally. The era of ultra-low interest rates is unlikely to return soon. Elevated rates for an extended period are the baseline.