Bitcoin tests $74,000 as analyst warns $82,500 target risks rejection
Bitcoin is holding the $73k–$74k band. Rekt Capital sees a double-bottom breakout toward $81k–$82.5k, but flags risk of a fake-out near ATH levels.
Price still trades between the 2021 and 2024 ATHs, a range that has capped rallies since early February per Rekt Capital.
After the latest bounce, BTC retested the 2021 ATH as support on the weekly chart, then rejected at the 2024 ATH into last week’s close NewsBTC.
The analyst says a weekly close above the 2024 ATH (~$74k) could open a push into the high $70ks, otherwise price stays “sandwiched” between the two ATHs X post.
On the weekly, BTC printed a double bottom and is pressing past its neckline. Confirmation needs a weekly close and a clean post-breakout retest near $72,810 X post.
If confirmed, the measured move points to $81,000–$82,500. Still, the current cycle phase may produce a bullish-looking structure that fails over time, via rejection at resistance, a failed retest that becomes a fake breakout, or a move that falls short of target X post.
Historically, BTC breakdowns from macro triangles retrace into bear-market bottoms, but paths differ by cycle. In 2018 and 2022, declines accelerated quickly into bottom accumulation NewsBTC.
In 2014, BTC consolidated below the triangle base, retested it, then legged lower. Current price action resembles 2014: consolidation behind the lost base since January, with room for a rally to the base near $82,500 before potential rejection X thread NewsBTC.
If history rhymes, today’s consolidation could precede more downside, with another major consolidation forming at the eventual bear-market bottom X thread.
