Analyst projects April Bitcoin $68k–$76k range amid oil, ceasefire risk
Sam Daodu says April will be macro‑driven for Bitcoin. He ties the month’s move to oil, rates, and a fragile US–Iran ceasefire.
Seasonality helps, but less than it seems. Since 2013, April closed green 9 of 13 times, a 69% win rate, per Daodu’s note to clients. Average return is 10.7%, but outliers inflate it. The median April gain sits near 7.1% by historical comps.
April 2026 looks different. The US–Iran conflict keeps geopolitics in focus after a ceasefire. Oil stayed elevated, and the Fed lifted its 2026 inflation view to 2.7% per Daodu. Markets priced out near‑term cuts into Q2.
He tracks three near‑term drivers:
- Oil falls below $90. Daodu’s threshold.
- Easing rate expectations. Market stance.
- US–Iran ceasefire holds. Conflict path.
Three scenarios for Bitcoin in April:
- Bullish: Ceasefire holds and oil slips sub‑$90. BTC clears ~$75k and targets ~$80k. Regulatory tailwind if the CLARITY Act sees progress later in April in committee.
- Base: Tax selling caps early gains. Range trade ~$68k–$76k. No clear catalyst, consolidation likely per Daodu.
- Bearish: Ceasefire breaks. BTC loses ~$69k support, leverage unwinds, short‑term holders sell. Flush toward ~$65k or lower on liquidations per CryptoQuant tracking.
Headline: Daodu maps three April paths for Bitcoin as geopolitics and rates dominate
