Analyst warns $75k resistance and FOMC could trigger Bitcoin sell-off

Virtual Bacon flags the “most volatile week all year” as Bitcoin holds above $74,000. His base case: price stays bearish below $94,000–$98,000.

He shared a detailed roadmap on X. He sees a resistance cluster at the 200‑day SMA ~$93,000, last lower high ~$94,000, and 50‑week SMA ~$98,000 (source). He puts risk at 15% down to the low $60,000s versus 30% up into resistance (source).

“We remain in a bear market until BTC decisively breaks above $94,000–$98,000,” he said (source).

Key volatility drivers this week:
- FOMC on March 18–19. Market implies a 99.1% chance of no rate cuts; Powell’s hawkish tone on oil‑driven inflation could trigger a sell‑off (NewsBTC: rate‑cut odds).
- Quarterly BTC options expiry. Heavy open interest sits at $74,000–$75,000, which could pin price into Friday’s expiration (Virtual Bacon analysis).
- Geopolitics and oil. If oil approaches $120 and lines up with FOMC and quadruple witching, instability rises (NewsBTC: geopolitical tensions and oil).

Levels to watch:
- Above $75,000 opens a run toward $80,000; below $70,000 adds downside momentum (source).

Two paths into week’s end:
- Breakout: Hold >$75,000 through Friday’s volatility, then press toward $80,000 and attempt $94,000–$98,000 in Q2 (Virtual Bacon, NewsBTC: volatility context).
- Rejection: Fail at $75,000, drop back to $63,000–$70,000 post‑expiry; S&P 500 breaking its 200‑day SMA and rising oil could extend bear conditions, with targets at $58,000 or even $43,000 (Virtual Bacon, NewsBTC: oil prices).