Analyst warns Bitcoin $78k rebound is a bull trap
Bitcoin jumps above $78,000. Analyst Marmot warns the rally looks like a bull trap, not a breakout.
Investor mood flipped bullish after the rebound. Market sentiment turned positive. But Marmot urged caution on the move in Bitcoin (BTC) above $78,000 as $100k calls spread across crypto media.
He sees a classic distribution setup. He calls the bounce a “major bull trap.” His trap warning cites patterns that often precede sharp reversals. He argues most traders miss the real move while price grinds higher. Price optimism has grown even as some still frame this as a bear cycle. Bear context here.
Marmot highlights a repeatable structure. After the all‑time high above $126,000, BTC formed a wedge near $96k–$100k, then dropped below $65k in Feb 2026. ATH reference. He says the same wedge is forming now between ~$72k and $80k, with risk of a slide toward $50k. His drawdown view. That’s about a 33.5% drop from >$75,200. Chart thread.
- Spot ETFs saw their biggest outflow in months. Roughly $300 million left in one day, including Fidelity’s fund. ETF flow data
- Institutions are selling into strength while retail buys dips. Capital is rotating, not fully exiting. Whales vs retail
- Liquidity walls, including from large managers, may be propping price to provide exit liquidity. Marmot points to BlackRock as an example. Marmot’s claim
- He warns a fast drop could follow once liquidity thins. He advises avoiding buys near the top during fund rebalancing. Timing risk note
Title: Bitcoin tops $78k; Marmot warns of bull trap, flags $300m ETF outflows
