BEARISH 📉 : Analyst warns Bitcoin’s $85k resistance could trigger drop to $40k
Analyst warns against buying Bitcoin (BTC) near $85,000. He sees $83k–$88k as heavy resistance and a likely distribution zone, not the end of the broader bear market.
He says BTC can still pop above $80k, then fade. The call comes from @Sherlockwhale on X, who frames the move as a retrace within a larger downcycle based on a Fib map after a drop from $97k to $60k and a choppy recovery phase.
Key resistance he watches on the weekly chart:
- $83,435 at 0.618 Fib
- $84,647 at 0.65 Fib
- $89,797 at 0.786 Fib
He argues this untested cluster draws outsized sell pressure as trapped buyers sell near breakeven.
He adds that the average cost basis for US Spot BTC ETF holders sits at $87,830, making $87k–$88k a psychological zone where underwater investors may exit at breakeven. Sources cite ETF cohort positioning and flows and positioning and growing unrealized losses. He links potential selling to pain since BTC’s ATH referenced in October 2025 by options data.
Short-term dynamics are similar. The short-term holder cost basis is ~$80,100. He notes BTC has topped each time it rose above this line as STHs sold into strength, with two swift breakdowns after. Another push toward $80k could again invite supply, per recent STH profit-taking behavior and rising derivatives bid.
He warns of a bull trap around $85k and projects a deeper correction, with a potential bottom near $40,000 before a new trend, echoing prior bottom scenarios and bull-trap risk. He suggests the better entry window could be October, per his thread.
Headline: Analyst flags $83k–$88k BTC sell zone; warns bull trap, eyes $40k bottom