Bitcoin climbs above $71K after U.S–Iran ceasefire; CPI report due

Bitcoin jumps back above $71K on US–Iran ceasefire headlines. The move looks headline‑driven, with CPI and the $74K level now in focus (QCP Market Colour, White House statement).

Risk rallied together. Equities rose, oil cooled to the low‑$90s after the ceasefire news (QCP).

The truce is conditional. President Donald J. Trump tied it to Iran’s handling of the Strait of Hormuz in coming weeks (White House tweet).

Macro is mixed. Payrolls rebounded, but softer labor signals keep the Fed juggling growth and energy‑driven inflation. This week’s CPI could decide whether the rebound in Bitcoin holds above $71K or fades (QCP).

Derivatives mark caution. Front‑end vols are compressed, downside skew stays bid. Notable calls cluster at $75K–$85K, support sits near $60K–$65K. QCP flags $74K as the breakout line (QCP).

On‑chain shows a defensive stance. Exchange reserves remain elevated, not washed out:
- Binance holds ~637.6K BTC, Coinbase Advanced ~866.6K BTC, both still below early‑2025 levels (CryptoQuant Novaque Research).
- Netflow sits slightly negative around −289.6 BTC. Since February, outflows dominate with occasional sharp deposit spikes; no persistent positive netflows typical of panic selling (CryptoQuant).

Bottom line from the reports. Positioning stays defensive, not capitulatory. The short‑term bounce hinges on ceasefire follow‑through and a softer CPI; without that, a decisive break above $74K looks uncertain (QCP).