Analyst warns Bitcoin bear market could last until October 2026
Analyst Jelle warns the Bitcoin drawdown may not be done. His cycle and RSI reads point to a later bottom.
Jelle says BTC is down about 44% from an ATH near $126,080, with a February local low near $63,000 marking a 53% drop. He compares this to prior bear-market drawdowns of ~84% after 2017 and ~77% after 2021 source.
Since 2014, his chart shows bull phases around 150–152 weeks and bears around 52–58 weeks. By that structure, the current bear is short. Projecting from an October 2025 ATH points to a window into October 2026 for a cycle low source.
The weekly RSI is key in his view. In past bears, bottoms formed after the RSI fell below 37, then printed a higher low near that level before the price turned. BTC first slipped under 37 this cycle and has fallen roughly another 30% since, less than some earlier episodes but not an outlier given the small sample source, context, context.
He looks for a bullish divergence at the end: price makes a lower or higher low while RSI makes a higher low near its prior trough. That pattern has preceded accumulation phases in past cycles. He hasn’t seen that structure yet and urges patience source, comment.
Investor sentiment remains split after the failed push through $74,000 and questions about whether the worst is over source, source.
Key takeaways:
- Drawdown now ~44% from ATH; Feb low was ~53% off the peak source.
- Prior bears fell ~84% and ~77% source.
- Bear duration by cycle mapping could extend into Oct 2026 source.
- Weekly RSI signal for a bottom not confirmed; watch for a higher-low divergence source.
Headline: Jelle warns Bitcoin bear not over yet: 44% off ATH, RSI bottom signal still missing
