Long-term holders increase activity; Bitcoin enters distribution, risks downside into year-end
Bitcoin stayed range-bound over the weekend. On-chain data still points to a bear setup, says analyst Boris.
In an X post, Boris said the rising Long-Term Holder (LTH) Active Supply Ratio shows elevated LTH activity and ongoing distribution source.
“As the market rises, these coins are gradually distributed to meet demand. When demand begins to weaken, the market typically transitions into a sideways structure, allowing the distribution process to continue,” he wrote source.
Boris argues the market often turns down after distribution completes and new positions are set. He links the current structure to prior setups that preceded corrections source.
Since LTH activity picked up, he notes price fell from about $95,000 to near $60,000, and the LTH uptrend hasn’t reversed, keeping downside risk on the table source.
He sees $60,000–$62,000 not as firm support but as a liquidity generation zone within redistribution, with stops and limits clustering there source.
“Even if we see upward movements in the coming weeks, these are likely to represent a liquidity illusion occurring within the broader distribution phase,” Boris added source.
As of writing, BTC trades near $67,628, down 1% in 24 hours source.
