Analyst says Bitcoin hasn’t bottomed; history points to Q4 2026

Bitcoin turns green on daily and weekly. A timing model says the bottom likely needs more time.

Since 2013, every bear market bottom formed after more than a year. A charted review shows past cycles lasted about 426, 363, and 376 days before bottoming per analyst Xremin.

Bitcoin is only ~190 days into the current correction when measured from the October 2025 peak, or roughly half the prior durations per the same analysis. Bulls asking if the worst has passed are pushing back on this timing risk per NewsBTC’s caution recap.

The bull side cites new structure. US spot BTC ETFs now hold about 6.5% of market cap, with a peak near 10% during October 2025 per Bitcoinist’s coverage of institutional flows. The US Department of Labor in March 2026 proposed a safe harbor for 401(k) fiduciaries that add crypto to plan menus per NewsBTC.

These shifts can cushion depth but not necessarily shorten time. Analysts warn that declaring a bottom now implies breaking a 13‑year timing pattern without clear structural proof per this counterpoint.

Institutional demand could keep price above $50,000 or even $40,000 per NewsBTC’s drawdown scenarios. But cycle cadence tied to the halving points to a more durable bottom closer to Q4 2026 per the caution view.