NewsBTC
Apr 15, 2026 upd. 8 Jun

Bitcoin trades above $71.5K; Capriole flags bullish on-chain, institutional demand

3 min

Edwards: Bitcoin turns bullish above $71.5K; macro fear eases, AI risk to DeFi rises

Bitcoin flashes a bullish setup if it holds above $71,500, says Capriole’s Charles Edwards. He sees improving technicals, on‑chain accumulation, and easing macro stress, but warns of rising AI-driven risks to DeFi.

Edwards calls $71,500 a key monthly and weekly level. A close above it would mark the strongest monthly finish in a year, with a bullish daily engulfing and outperformance since the Iran war’s start according to his note.

Bitcoin daily chart

On-chain reads align with accumulation in his view. He cites long‑term holders not distributing, “restacking” among 2y+ coins, and depressed SOPR. Miner stress persists, but selling is subdued. He also flags institutions as net buyers again, with demand exceeding new supply in prior bull phases per Capriole.

  • Low dormancy and LTH “restacking” resemble past accumulation zones source
  • Deeply depressed SOPR has preceded stronger forward returns NewsBTC analysis
  • Hash Ribbons still signal miner capitulation; selling pressure muted Hash Ribbons context
  • Miners’ hashrate rebounded from March lows, easing extreme stress hashrate detail

“Amongst this swathe of data it’s hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K,” he writes in the note.

Macro fear is fading, but not gone. Edwards points to a VIX “buy” as volatility slid toward 20, CNN Fear & Greed back in buy territory, and the biggest weekly jump in US liquidity since May 2025 per Capriole.

He says markets now treat the Iran conflict as contained. Oil pulled back below $100, a US‑Iran ceasefire holds, and Bitcoin has outperformed equities by 11% since the war began he notes.

But he flags a sharp rise in AI‑driven security risk for DeFi and complex smart contracts. “If you don’t have a really good reason to use complex DeFi protocols and smart contracts, you probably shouldn’t be as we enter this new AI realm,” Edwards writes in his note.

His stance stays conditional. “If the current move breaks down next week, and risk metrics start flashing, our systematic portfolio will pivot accordingly. Until then, things look great for Bitcoin and equities today” he adds.