Bitcoin Poised for Potential 2017-Style Surge in 2025
Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor, shared insights on Bitcoin's potential in a video titled "The Macro Outlook for 2025." He anticipates a macro “summer” in 2025, characterized by increasing growth momentum and modest inflation, allowing central banks to maintain supportive policies.
Key Insights
- Improving global manufacturing data indicates a continuation of the business cycle.
- Declining US bond yields and a weakening dollar may facilitate liquidity injections, similar to trends seen in 2017.
- Current shelter inflation lags behind home prices, giving central banks room to adjust monetary policy as CPI numbers stabilize.
- Historically, Bitcoin has surged when the ISM Index is around 50; current conditions suggest potential for significant price movement.
- Bittel referenced a historical precedent of a 23x increase in Bitcoin during previous cycles but emphasized caution regarding guarantees of similar outcomes.
- Liquidity from China could further drive digital asset growth as 2025 progresses.
- Short-term Bitcoin pullbacks should not be viewed as shifts in macro regimes; corrections are expected in strong rallies.
- At press time, Bitcoin traded at $97,710.
