Glassnode says Bitcoin rebound faces $78,100 test as profit-taking rises
Glassnode says the rebound is fragile. The key test sits at $78,100.
Bitcoin has climbed back near resistance around $74k, 5.2% below the “True Market Mean” at $78,100, which tracks active supply cost basis. Glassnode frames that level as the most important near‑term hurdle for Bitcoin and sees odds of a spike toward or above it in the mid‑term, but not a confirmed regime shift yet (Glassnode, NewsBTC).
Spot demand improved. US spot ETF flows turned positive. Institutional exposure is rebuilding, though cautiously. Glassnode calls this a healthier setup, but still below prior highs in CME open interest and ETF AUM, signaling re‑engagement rather than full risk‑on (Glassnode).
Profit‑taking is rising. The 30‑day EMA of realized profit/loss ratio sits at 1.16, meaning realized profits now outpace losses. In bear‑market rallies, sharp spikes above 1 have historically flagged distribution risk, not broad demand recovery (NewsBTC).
Short‑term holders aren’t at “exhaustion” yet. STH supply in profit is 43.2%, below its historical mean near 54.2%, implying room left before typical local‑top conditions. But as that share rises, distribution pressure tends to build (Glassnode).
Participation is uneven. Binance‑led buying outpaced Coinbase, pointing to stronger offshore and retail flow versus US institutional cohorts typically tied to Coinbase. Sustained uptrends usually need both sides engaged (NewsBTC).
Derivatives show limited conviction. Funding rates are balanced. Implied volatility is compressed. 25‑delta skew still favors puts over calls, though less defensively than before. Positioning looks hedged, not aggressively long (Glassnode).
Liquidation maps remain active. Dense long liquidations sit near $63k–$65k, while shorts cluster around $74k–$76k, keeping price action reactive to forced flows. Dealers also hold negative gamma around $74k–$76k, which could amplify moves on a push higher (Glassnode).
What confirms a trend shift? Absorb profit‑taking, regain and hold above $78,100, and draw broader, sustained inflows—particularly deeper institutional participation—rather than momentum alone (NewsBTC, Glassnode).
