Analysts say Bitcoin shakeout starts within days, bottom below $57k
50/200 SMA cross flags “final washout”; Bitcoin (BTC) retests bear flag from below
Analysts see the last leg down near. A “final washout” window may open in days.
Market watcher Ali Martinez said the 50/200 SMA crossover on BTC’s 3‑day chart has marked each cycle’s absolute bottom since 2014 source. He pointed to the latest cross on February 27 and called out a 3–6 day window now starting for “final accumulation” if history rhymes source.
- At past crosses in 2014, 2018, 2022, BTC was already down 50%–72% from peak source.
- Then 23–33 days later, price fell another 45%–52% before bottoming source.
- In 2022, a lower low printed 156 days later, completing the bear structure source.
- BTC has seen a 52% correction from its October 2025 peak, and the signal is 30 days old as of today source.
- Martinez outlined $40k and $30k as historical “reset” zones based on 40%–50% drawdowns source.
“Structurally, this setup has historically aligned with the last major downside move before a generational macro bottom forms… The countdown to the next vertical move has begun.” source
BTC also broke below a daily bear‑flag structure after trading between 62k–74k for nearly two months source. Price bounced to 67k–68k to retest the pattern from below. Crypto Jelle said a rejection here would confirm support flip to resistance source.
The same analyst noted prior bear‑market lows formed under the 0.618 retracement, placing a potential bottom below 57k. “Is this time different? Doubt it,” he wrote source.
