BULLISH 📈 : Fidelity says Bitcoin enters undervalued accumulation zone, historically marking bottoms
Fidelity says Bitcoin looks undervalued and back in an accumulation zone. Momentum is still negative. Risk appetite across crypto remains narrow.
The Q2 2026 Signals Report frames the market as corrective, not in broad expansion. Bitcoin holds most unrealized profitability. Other majors stabilized after the Q1 reset.
Its “Yardstick” turned positive. Price fell. Hash rate pulled back. Fidelity marks this as the “undervalued” zone, historically tied to accumulation phases and relative bottoms (source).
71 of the past 91 days sat below minus one standard deviation of the Yardstick mean. That started in October 2025. Two U.S. cold-weather events amplified it as miners cut power to support grids (source).
Fidelity cautions on the hash-rate dip. Some analysts link it to miners shifting toward AI workloads (source). The firm adds demand-response programs also explain miner throttling, notably in Texas (source).
Momentum turned negative on October 18, 2025, near $107,000. Since then, Bitcoin fell about 36%. Q1 2026 stayed range-bound between $62,500 and $76,022 (source).
“This signal is not built to time tops or bottoms.” Fidelity sees stabilization, not fresh upside momentum (source).
NUPL sits at 0.21 as Q1 ended. That is the “Hope-Fear” zone. Some holders remain in profit, but conviction on a durable bottom is missing (source).
History looks more constructive. When NUPL hovers near 0.21 ±0.01, median one-year returns were 63%, and three-year CAGR 74%. Fidelity warns these relationships can weaken if macro dominates flows (source).
Jurrien Timmer flags a tactical test. His chart shows BTC near $79,486 after rebounding from the February low around $60,033. Momentum is back to overbought. He calls it a key check of bear-flag resistance versus emerging bull strength.
“If Bitcoin cannot be pulled down by this overbought momentum and trendline resistance, then this is an emerging bull market,” Timmer wrote.
At press time, BTC traded at $76,036.
- Yardstick in undervalued zone. Accumulation historically follows (source).
- 71 of 91 days below minus one sigma. Started October 2025 (source).
- Momentum negative since October 18, 2025 near $107,000 (source).
- Drawdown about 36%. Q1 range $62,500–$76,022 (source).
- NUPL 0.21 in “Hope-Fear”. History: 63% median 1Y, 74% 3Y CAGR (source).
- Hash-rate nuance. AI shift claims versus demand-response throttling (source).
