Bitcoin underperforms S&P as BTC/S&P ratio falls, risk-off regime persists

Adler: BTC/S&P ratio falls. Negative correlation doesn’t mean decoupling.

The 13‑week BTC–S&P correlation turned negative. But Axel Adler Jr. says that’s not decoupling. It’s noise in a risk‑off tape.

The correlation stays below zero on a 13‑week window. Adler warns this reads as “loosening,” but actually mirrors choppy weeks with isolated BTC bounces against a weak index. Source: Adler note.

The key check is relative strength. The BTC/S&P price ratio has been falling since January and remains under pressure. Translation: Bitcoin (BTC) has underperformed US stocks even while correlation slipped. Source: Adler note.

“What matters is sustained BTC outperformance over the S&P,” Adler writes. “That confirmation is not there yet.” The regime stays risk‑off until a “new stable” phase of relative outperformance appears. Source: Adler note.

What to watch next:
- BTC/S&P ratio reversing and holding higher. Primary source
- Not the week‑to‑week correlation print. Primary source