US CPI report today may sway Bitcoin and December Fed hike odds

4 min

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish October’s CPI on Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. New York time. Economists expect core CPI to rise about 0.22% month over month, slower than September’s 0.33%. Bitcoin trades near $74,400, close to Sunday’s two-month low of $73,510. Historical data shows cooler CPI prints often coincide with a positive first-hour BTC move, while hotter prints correlate with weakness.

Economists’ Baseline and Range

Seventeen banks and research firms surveyed by The Wall Street Journal see a median rise of 0.25% for headline CPI and 0.22% for core. Forecast dispersion implies the core reading could round to 0.1%, 0.2%, or 0.3%.

Headline CPI: estimates from 0.14% at Nomura to 0.29% at Pinebrook Capital, versus 0.65% in September.
Core CPI: estimates from 0.13% at Nomura to 0.28% at BNP Paribas and Pinebrook, versus 0.33% in September.
Yearly rate: September was 3.7% headline and 2.6% core. The October 2025 government shutdown limits clean year-over-year comparisons.

Economists expect growth in the core CPI to have moderated in October to around 0.22%, though the full range of estimates is broad enough to round down to 0.1% or round up to 0.3%.

Due to the government shutdown in Oct 2025, there's no tidy year-earlier figure. pic.twitter.com/CFM7ikw8fO

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) November 9, 2026

Fed Context and Market Odds

This is the last CPI before the Federal Reserve’s December 8-9 meeting. Polymarket shows an 86.5% probability of a 25 bp hike and 11.5% for no change. Higher rates increase cash and bond yields, which can pressure non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. A cooler CPI could trim hike odds; a hotter print would reinforce them.

BTC Reaction Pattern on CPI Days

Across the last 24 CPI releases since October 2024, Bitcoin’s first hour after 8:30 a.m. shows larger swings and a directional tilt tied to the core print:

Volatility: median high–low range in the first hour was 1.17%, versus 0.62% in the same hour on other weekdays.
Core ≤ 0.2% (13 reports): BTC rose 10 times, average +0.45% in the first hour.
Core ≥ 0.3% (10 reports): BTC rose 4 times, average −0.11% in the first hour.

Largest recent downside: February 12, 2025, core at 0.4%, BTC −1.9% in the first hour. Last month’s 0.3% reading saw −1.4%.

Bitcoin Price Levels Into the Print

BTC trades at $74,398 on Binance, about 1.2% above Sunday’s low. On the daily chart, price sits below both EMAs: 200-day at $76,481 and 50-day at $79,128.

Resistance: $75,599, then $76,481, then $79,128.
Support: $74,177, then $73,510, then $73,027.

BTCUSDT 1D chart. Source: TradingView.

CPI outcome	What it could mean	Level to watch
Core at 0.1%	Lower hike odds; room for a bounce	$75,599, then $76,481
Core at 0.2%	In line; likely range-bound	$73,510 to $75,599
Core at 0.3% or higher	December hike reinforced	$73,510, then $73,027