Crosby: Bitcoin’s 4‑year cycle is fading, liquidity and ETFs now drive price

Bitcoin Magazine Pro’s Matt Crosby says the halving playbook is losing power. He argues the market now tracks liquidity and institutional demand, not a calendar cycle on X.

More than 20 million Bitcoin are already in circulation. That’s over 95% of eventual supply, so each new halving has less shock value, he says on X.

Crosby points to demand from treasuries and spot ETFs. He cites a report that “Strategy alone has been acquiring” 1,000+ BTC per day, outpacing new issuance by 2–3x in NewsBTC. He also notes a session where spot ETFs bought nearly $750 million in BTC in NewsBTC.

He urges investors to watch liquidity. He cites a 96.26% long-term correlation between the S&P 500 and global M2, a 93% correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P on monthly data over 15 years, and an 85% correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity in NewsBTC.

Election seasonality gets little weight. Midterm years can show strong averages but negative medians, and the sample is thin. Gold and equities don’t fit a clean political pattern either on X.

Measured versus gold, he says BTC likely topped in late 2024 and has spent over a year in a relative bear, with a potential bottom around February 2026. He frames this as more evidence the classic four‑year cycle is breaking down in NewsBTC.

On-chain and macro signals matter more, in his view. He highlights Coin Days Destroyed and Value Days Destroyed, which have historically flagged tops and accumulation zones, saying BTC has re-entered an undervaluation area. He also notes April 2026 US consumer sentiment at 47.6% alongside improving manufacturing expectations and liquidity on X.

“We are seeing fresh liquidity entering the system,” he says. Waiting for an “arbitrary date on a calendar” may no longer get rewarded on X.