Tom Lee predicts Ethereum bottom, signals exit from crypto winter
Tom Lee says Ethereum is at or near a cycle low. He cites DeMark analogs to past S&P crashes and on-chain cost basis.
Speaking at Futu Expo 2026 in Hong Kong, Lee said Tom DeMark’s mapping shows a 93% correlation between Ethereum and the S&P 500’s 1987 crash pattern. He added ETH also tracks the 2011 S&P bottom setup.
“If the 1987 analog holds, ETH bottomed on March 7,” Lee said. “If 2011 fits better, the market is bottoming now.”
He backed it with on-chain data. Lee put ETH’s realized price at $2,241, citing a drawdown now near prior troughs. In 2022, ETH traded 39% below realized price. In 2025, the discount was 21% before a turn. “Currently, we’re at 22%,” he said, placing the market in the same zone as last year’s reversal by this metric.
At press time, ETH traded at $2,147.
Lee also pointed to long-term returns. He said ETH rose 49,000% over 10 years, versus Bitcoin at 11,000%, and compared that with Nvidia’s ~65x.
Key points
- 93% correlation to the 1987 S&P pattern per DeMark
- 1987 analog implies a March 7 bottom; 2011 analog implies bottoming now per Lee
- Realized price: $2,241; current discount ~22% vs 39% (2022) and 21% (2025) on-chain view
