BEARISH 📉 : Analyst says Hyperliquid HYPE not a buy now as metrics fall
Michael Nadeau stays long-term bullish on Hyperliquid. But he says the latest move in HYPE looks mistimed.
In an X post, he wrote that the market is leaning too hard into the bull case as on-chain activity and positioning soften. “I’m a fan … but think he’s early here,” Nadeau said, calling Hyperliquid a “risk-off” chain like the rest of crypto source.
He argues recent strength outran the data. The key prints he cites:
- Fees down 56% source
- Volumes down 55% source
- Open interest down 44% source
- Bridged assets down 32% source
“It’s the same 50k users … as last year,” he added, pointing to flat growth and muted inflows over 30 days source.
The oil-perps story has cooled. Nadeau says oil futures volume on Hyperliquid peaked March 9 and has trended lower since source. That undercuts the recent “real-time macro venue” narrative boosted during the Iran shock and crude volatility source and broader “TradFi/Oil futures” pitch source.
He still credits HYPE’s token design. Fees accrue to the community, an assistance fund buys and burns HYPE, and stakers get trading-fee discounts—features that helped HYPE outperform BTC in the bear market source.
Near term, he sees stretched technicals. RSI sits near 67, with resistance at the 50-week moving average source.
He also questions PURR. The Nasdaq-listed vehicle focused on HYPE exposure gained 87% since Jan 20 versus HYPE’s 93%, which he calls odd in a “risk-off bear market” with scant TradFi demand so far source.
Bottom line from Nadeau: “Bullish long term,” but he is “fading the recent action” for now source.
