BULLISH 📈 : Quantum security progress could trigger Bitcoin all-time high, Edwards says
Capriole founder Charles Edwards says Bitcoin could reprice sharply higher if the network shows real traction on post‑quantum security. He frames the current setup as a top opportunity zone, but conditional on visible progress.
Edwards points to weak sentiment and hesitant institutions. He says quantum risk may already be partly priced in. He outlined the view in remarks shared on X and recent interviews here.
“Bitcoin, which has been in a massive downtrend for the last nine months, completely flipped the script in the last two, three weeks.” He called those signals rare, seen every few years in his experience source.
The key variable now is quantum. Not the four‑year cycle or miner supply. Edwards says the market wants credible movement toward quantum‑resistant signatures as the perceived threat window narrows details.
He warns the timeline matters. “If we do nothing for two years, I probably won’t have any Bitcoin.” He expects pressure from institutions and builders to force action, but wants a concrete migration path context.
Edwards criticizes complacency and cites early work like BIP‑360 testnets. He says Bitcoin still lacks a clear plan for post‑quantum signatures and for exposed or dormant coins reference.
The technical lift isn’t trivial. Larger signature schemes hit block space, throughput, wallet migration, and lost‑coin treatment. He sees a solution as feasible, but the process takes time overview.
“As soon as there’s any traction from implementing code to improve Bitcoin, I think we’ll reprice higher and this risk goes away.” He adds, “If we get traction on quantum, we could have a new all‑time high very quickly.” source
Valuation signals back the case. Capriole’s energy value model puts fair value near $115,000, implying a ~43% discount at the time of his remarks. He also cites discounted readings on Dynamic Range NVT, Yardstick, MVRV Z‑score, and miner metrics source.
Flows matter more now, he says. ETF and treasury demand turned positive again, while long‑term holder supply started rising after heavy distribution. He reads that as seller exhaustion source.
- Key support to watch is $71,000 source
- Upside if strength holds seen toward $80,000–$82,000 source
- Loss of $71,000 on weekly or monthly close would challenge the setup source
He also notes growing work on quantum‑readiness across ecosystems, with any clear signal from major Bitcoin Core contributors likely acting as a catalyst. Relative strength versus equities and gold in recent weeks supports his near‑term view source.
Edwards mentions competition and comparisons with Ethereum only insofar as they increase pressure to act on post‑quantum work, but keeps the focus on Bitcoin’s own roadmap context.
