Rising yields cut Fed easing odds, pressure Bitcoin and stocks

Bitcoin rebounds to $70k as yields climb; BTC–S&P correlation hits 0.55

Bitcoin (BTC) trades back above $70,000, up ~10% this week. Treasuries sell off as markets reprice inflation risk. Coinspeaker

CME Fed funds futures now imply less than 50% odds of two 25 bps cuts in 2026, down from ~80% before the conflict. Energy shocks push “higher for longer” inflation into rates. Coinspeaker

10-year UST yield rose four sessions, from 3.93% to 4.15%. Higher risk-free yields raise the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield assets like Bitcoin. Coinspeaker

“The Fed is trapped.” Stagflation fears persist, with oil rising and growth slowing, per Michael A. Gayed. Tweet

BTC’s correlation with equities tightened. The 30‑day BTC–S&P 500 correlation reached 0.55, signaling institutions treat BTC as high‑beta risk. Liquidity conditions analysis

Price action tracked stocks tick-for-tick. As S&P 500 futures fell to 6,718 on escalation headlines, BTC slipped to ~$65k, then both rebounded to 6,840 and ~$74k. Coinspeaker

BTC structure stays bullish above $70k, but the range is tight. Symmetrical triangle on the daily suggests a volatility expansion ahead. Coinspeaker

Key levels traders watch:
- Support $65,000; below it opens $58,000–$62,000 near the 200‑DMA
- Resistance $74,000; reclaim requires volume confirmation
- RSI sits near 50, a neutral read
Coinspeaker

Background on ETF‑driven stability during volatility. Coinspeaker