US House moves to ban lawmakers from political market bets

**US House bill aims to ban lawmakers from betting on policy outcomes**

A new measure seeks to block Congress members, spouses, and dependents from trading political event contracts.

Committee Chair Bryan Steil introduced the *Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act*, calling it an ethics safeguard against profiting from inside policy knowledge. The bill targets wagers on political and public policy outcomes, expanding conflict-of-interest rules beyond stock trading.

Violations could carry civil penalties of up to $2,000. Unpaid fines by former members would go to the DOJ for enforcement.

Prediction markets — including crypto-linked platforms — turn elections, regulatory shifts, and macro events into tradeable probabilities. Crypto users have been early adopters, but Washington is now signalling these markets are big enough for regulatory attention.

The proposal focuses solely on insider restrictions, not retail bans — potentially legitimizing public participation while addressing policymaker conflicts.

Broader takeaway: as prediction markets grow, expect more visibility, potential disclosure rules, and access changes that could affect liquidity and sentiment in crypto-linked event contracts.

The bill is not yet law. Watch for whether Congress limits only insider trading or moves toward wider restrictions.

Source: House Administration Committee