XRP edges 10–20% above prior high amid 161-day crypto-S&P divergence

XRP and majors stall; S&P–crypto divergence at 161 days

XRP sits at the center of a key cycle debate. Will Taylor says altcoins and macro now send mixed signals.

The report groups XRP with Ethereum, Cardano, and Litecoin. These majors have not printed strong new cycle highs. For XRP, the new ATH is only about 10–20% above the prior peak, per the note.

“Are we accumulating or distributing?” the author asks. He cites momentum signals, including RSI, and context from Bitcoin, to build the picture (source).

Taylor notes past cycles. Long ranges, then short expansions. In 2017 and 2020, the strongest windows lasted roughly nine months after breakout (source).

This cycle looks different. The note argues ETF demand and pre‑halving speculation may have pulled part of the expansion forward (source). That leaves two paths for large‑cap alts. Either they lag before a delayed expansion, or the failure to print decisive highs signals distribution (source).

S&P divergence complicates timing

A key focus is the S&P 500 versus total crypto cap. The correlation has “diverged quite aggressively” over the last 100–200 days (source; report). The current split is about 161 days. That sits inside a historical 77–203 day range, per the report.

In one prior case, crypto closed the gap within 42 days, with a 67% move by Bitcoin or the broader market (source). The note adds a caveat. The S&P’s advance may lack volume confirmation, raising the risk of a false lead for crypto (source).