Negative CVD contradicts XRP rally, signaling unsupported recovery risk ahead

XRP holds $1.40, but order flow stays negative. Price sits near $1.44. The bid isn’t confirmed by buys.

On Binance, CVD prints about -7.18M. That means sell volume still leads buy volume. Source: CryptoQuant quicktake.

This setup cuts two ways. Either sellers are tiring and price stabilizes. Or price is held up by reduced selling, not real demand. If selling resumes, the bounce fades. Context: discussion of selling pressure dynamics.

One constructive sign appears. The 30‑day price–CVD correlation improved to ~0.61. Price and liquidity now align better than before. That reduces the odds of disorderly swings, but doesn’t pick direction. Source: CryptoQuant.

Key levels and structure for XRP:
- Price range since February: ~$1.30–$1.50. Sideways after a prolonged drop from a 2025 high above $3.00
- Still below the 200‑day MA, which slopes down and caps rallies
- Volume has faded after capitulation, showing low participation from both sides
- Confirmation needs a break and hold above $1.50–$1.60

CVD hasn’t turned positive. Until it does, the recovery looks tentative. The market is transitioning, not confirmed.