Coinspeaker
8 hour ago
Neutral

XRP nears $1.50 as ETFs cool, October pullback risk rises

3 min

XRP trades near $1.51, up 0.8% on the day after a dip to $1.47. The token is on track for a third straight positive month with a compounded three-month gain near 50%: +2.1% in July, +30% in August, and about +13% in September. Since 2014, a fourth consecutive green month has not occurred, and the last four three-month streaks were followed by double-digit monthly declines. Near-term direction hinges on the $1.47–$1.50 support band.

Key near-term drivers

  • Evernorth merger vote on September 30.
  • XRPL Batch amendment reportedly set to activate on September 29 with 30 of 35 validators in support as of September 20.
  • On-chain activity spike: 11.5M XRP traded on-chain at 1.6x the 30-day average, payment routing at 2.9x, while XRP ETFs added $3.5M over two days as BTC and ETH funds saw outflows.

ETF flows and market context

XRP ETF Flows

XRP ETF Flows Coinglass

  • U.S. spot XRP ETFs: approximately $1.71 billion cumulative net inflows.
  • September 22–25: about $75.6 million inflows, led by Bitwise’s XRP fund.
  • September 28: inflows slowed to $3.96 million, allocated to Canary’s XRPC.
  • Total assets across seven U.S. spot ETFs: near $1.77 billion, holding about 1.18 billion XRP, roughly 1.18% of supply.
  • Spot market: XRP traded between $1.47 and $1.53 in the past 24 hours on approximately $4 billion daily volume.

October scenarios: bull, base, bear

XRPUSDT Chart 1D

XRPUSDT Chart 1D

  • Resistance: $1.53–$1.66 zone, with a ceiling near $1.62; repeated $1.60 rejections cited as a momentum issue.
  • Immediate support: $1.47–$1.50. Token-unlock risk identified as pressure on this band.
  • Below support: 50-day and 200-day moving averages converging near $1.37, raising the prospect of a golden cross.
  • Bull case: Reclaim $1.57, target $1.60, then retest $1.70.
  • Base case: Range between $1.47 and $1.57 into month-end.
  • Bear case: Daily close below $1.47 exposes $1.37 moving averages, then $1.20.

Context on alternative bets

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LiquidChain is building a Layer 3 network that connects Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana liquidity into a single execution environment. Source: LiquidChain

Large-cap constraints: XRP’s market cap near $99 billion means a doubling requires tens of billions in new inflows. Traders often rotate to earlier-stage tokens when large caps stall at resistance such as $1.6 for XRP.

LiquidChain ($LIQUID): a Layer 3 infrastructure project aiming to unify Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana liquidity into one execution environment. Presale price: $0.01496. The project proposes a Unified Liquidity Layer and Deploy-Once Architecture for cross-ecosystem reach. Presale risk remains elevated due to limited operating history and unproven scale.