US 30-year Treasury yield surpasses 5.60% first time since June 2002

The US 30-year Treasury yield moved above 5.60% for the first time since June 2002. It has risen 36 basis points month-to-date. The source expects 30-year US mortgage rates to reach 8% next week.

Key data

- US 30Y Treasury yield: above 5.60%
- Monthly change: +36 basis points
- Mortgage outlook from source: 8% 30Y fixed-rate mortgages expected next week

Why this matters for crypto and risk assets

- Higher long-end yields tighten financial conditions: borrowing costs rise and liquidity conditions worsen.
- Valuation pressure increases as discount rates rise: historically negative for equities and risk assets, including crypto.
- Dollar support is likely when US yields rise, which can weigh on crypto-denominated flows.

Housing and broader market context

- An 8% mortgage rate would further reduce housing affordability and signal restrictive financing conditions.
- Elevated term premiums and increased Treasury supply can keep long rates high, maintaining pressure on levered and growth-sensitive assets.