Trump says Ukraine and Russia agree to avoid energy targets

President Trump stated that Ukraine and Russia agreed to refrain from striking energy infrastructure and said the recent surge in diesel prices is driven mostly by the Russia-Ukraine war, not Iran.

Key points:
- Trump: Ukraine and Russia agreed not to target energy infrastructure.
- Trump: Diesel price surge stems primarily from the Russia-Ukraine conflict rather than Iran-related factors.

Market impact:
- Reduced risk of attacks on energy assets lowers supply disruption probability: potential downward pressure on oil and diesel risk premia.
- Lower energy risk premia can ease inflation pressures: supportive for risk assets, including crypto.
- Crypto mining cost volatility could decline if diesel and broader energy market pressures abate.

Status and uncertainty:
- No independent confirmation of an agreement between Ukraine and Russia to avoid energy targets.
- Implementation and enforcement are uncertain: markets may wait for verification and observable de-escalation.
- Energy price dynamics remain sensitive to developments in the Russia-Ukraine theater despite attribution away from Iran.