BEARISH 📉 : Long-dated Bitcoin options, basis flag quantum crash risk, Lim warns
Lim: 1.7M BTC quantum risk would show up in derivatives first
FalconX’s Joshua Lim says the first “q‑day” signals won’t be UTXOs moving. They’ll hit options and futures on Bitcoin first (X thread).
He splits the risk in two. Tech migration away from ECDSA. And a political fight over Satoshi-era coins.
Lim points to a conceivable migration path for most UTXOs, citing proposals like BIP‑361 and related work on post‑quantum transitions (analysis). But Satoshi-linked and other early P2PK outputs are the outlier.
His estimate: ~1.1M BTC tied to Satoshi. Up to ~1.7M BTC exposed including other old or lost coins. He calls it a “$127B question” (source).
Two paths, both market‑negative. “Either Satoshi is still around and can move coins pre q‑day … OR Satoshi is not around and someone will decide to steal the coins via a sufficiently powerful QC,” Lim writes (thread).
Responses are political. Burn those coins via governance, risking precedent on immutability. Or hard fork and let markets choose the “true BTC.” Lim adds the likely thief, if any, is a state‑level actor (thread).
He contrasts today with 2017. The 2017 split happened in a ~$45B, retail‑heavy market. Now the market is ~€1.5T, institutionally intermediated via ETFs, listed futures, and options. A fork now would mean a gap down and cascading liquidations, with institutions de‑risking if governance looks split (thread).
Early warning would light up in derivatives:
- Long‑dated BTC put skew at multi‑year highs; downside protection rich vs calls. Last comparable spikes came around 3AC/FTX in 2022 (thread, context).
- Forward basis near multi‑year lows; q‑day risk should compress or invert basis as traders hedge and position for a potential fork “airdrop” (thread).
- Open interest shifting across CME and crypto‑native venues as institutions grow via CME and IBIT options (thread, IBIT options).
Lim says some gauges are “flashing red,” but the picture is mixed. Macro and structural shifts can explain part of the move. The core takeaway: if q‑day ever looks real, the tape will say it in derivatives first, not on‑chain (thread).
