Rising Treasury yields drag crypto lower, Bitcoin falls below $69,000

Yields hit crypto again. Bonds, not oil, set the tone.

Bitcoin dipped below $69k. Ether also fell. The US 10Y hovered near 4.42%.

“The bond market is, by far, the biggest problem,” wrote Adam Kobeissi, arguing rates now drive risk. The firm says bonds are dictating equities, commodities, and policy. Source: Kobeissi thread on X.

Repricing flipped fast. “In just 27 days … the discussion has now become about Fed rate HIKES.” Kobeissi cites a 48% odds of a hike by Jan 2027. Source: Kobeissi post.

Kobeissi highlights rising bond volatility and a shift to higher-for-longer expectations. The firm points to a base case of unchanged rates through September 2027. Source: Kobeissi thread.

Arthur Hayes framed the crypto angle bluntly. “Almost there …” He asks what Treasury will do if tensions escalate, hinting policy action follows bond stress. Source: Arthur Hayes post.

What to watch
- 10Y yield path and bond vol. Source: Kobeissi thread.
- Rate odds shifting to hikes. Source: Kobeissi post.
- Any policy signals if yields approach 4.5–4.7% on the 10Y. Source: Kobeissi thread.

Bottom line for crypto
- This market trades liquidity first. Relief on de‑escalation fades if yields grind up. Source: Kobeissi thread.
- A real bid returns if bond stress forces a policy response. Source: Arthur Hayes post.