Metric with perfect record signals Bitcoin bottom not yet reached
Long-term holder losses climb to 29%. Bitcoin holds near $71,127, but a cycle bottom isn’t confirmed.
BTC is back above $70,000. A metric with a “perfect record” of calling bottoms suggests the low may still be ahead per recent analyses.
The key gauge is long-term holder (LTH) supply in loss. It tracks what share of coins held 155+ days sits underwater. Crypto analyst Ardi says every cycle floor formed when this measure hit a defined band on-chain.
- 2015 bottom: 53% of LTH supply in loss source
- 2018 bottom: ~45% in loss source
- 2022 bottom: ~44% in loss source
Today’s reading is ~29% and rising. That shows stress is building, but it’s still below the 44–53% zone historically seen at cycle lows per Ardi. Analysts caution the bottom may not be in yet per market commentary.
Price action stays choppy. BTC trades at $71,127, down 1.1% in 24h, after setting a recent swing low just under $63,000 in early February source. The $70,000 area remains a psychological pivot as noted.
Sentiment is muted. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index prints 43, with majors showing hesitation per NewsBTC.
