NewsBTC
Jun 7, 2026
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Bitcoin falls to $60K; CVDD points to $46K–$54K bottom

1 min

Analyst maps BTC bottom at $46k–$54k, flags $35k–$40k worst case

Bitcoin slid toward $60k. An on-chain model now clusters a likely bottom at $46k–$54k, per Rafael’s X thread.

The analyst notes BTC fell to ~$62k and is down 24% in a month. He says price dropped below the median holder breakeven and the 200WMA, into a zone where prior cycles based.

  • CVDD sits near $46,200. Past bottoms formed around 1.05x–1.18x CVDD, implying $46k–$54k.
  • Worst-case zone outlined at $35k–$40k. BTC tapped this deeper band on less than 3% of days this cycle.
  • Cycle drawdowns have eased: ~85% first cycle, 77% previous, ~50% now.
  • Key levels: Realized price ~$54k, Balanced ~$40k, Delta ~$35k.
  • Recovery trigger: reclaim $75k–$78k where STH cost basis, True Market Mean, and 200DMA align.

Rafael’s view centers on CVDD and cost-basis ladders to mark capitulation and re-accumulation bands. He frames the higher-probability bottom in the $46k–$54k cluster, with a deeper flush still possible.

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