BEARISH 📉 : Midterm pattern flags 60% Bitcoin drop toward $30,000 in 2026
Midterm-year pattern warns of a sharp May sell-off. Chartists say Bitcoin near $77,000 could drop toward $30,000.
Analyst Merlijn The Trader cites three midterm years with heavy May declines. 2014 fell 61%. 2018 dropped 65%. 2022 slid 66%. His April thread flags 2026 for a similar hit, projecting about -60.73% to ~$30,000. Source: Merlijn The Trader. Election-year backdrop: rising uncertainty into spring. Source: U.S. midterms overview, market uncertainty context.
Peter Brandt pushes back on $250,000 calls. “Stop with the mushrooms,” he wrote. Source: Peter Brandt. He sees a bear‑flag channel, not a bottom. Price tested ~$79,500 resistance, with room to pull back toward ~$69,000. A break below could target sub‑$50,000. Chart reference: TradingView.
Halving cycle timing supports caution. Peaks have landed 12–18 months after each halving. April 2024 halving. October 2025 all‑time high near $126,000. Now around $77,000, more than 24 months out. Cycle data suggests the top may be in. Reference: BTC overview.