Bitcoin tests $60k as Strategy’s Q2 looms and mNAV slips

Bitcoin trades near $65,150, down 0.8% in 24h. The near-term risk is Strategy’s Q2 earnings on July 31, not rates or ETF flows.

Strategy is the largest public BTC holder. Weak results can hit Bitcoin (BTC) directly. In Q1 2026, Strategy posted a $14.5B operating loss while software revenue rose to $124.3M (CoinGecko company holdings data).

Accretion metrics worsened. BTC yield fell to 5.8%. BTC per share growth slowed to 8% YoY. LSEG Q2 consensus implies a $3.86B swing back to operating profit, based on few estimates, leaving room for a downside surprise with BTC down to ~$59,100 in Q2 from ~$68,100 at Q1-end (CoinGecko).

Support sits at $60,000–$61,000. A break targets mid-$50,000s. Resistance stacks at $66,000–$68,000, with >$70,000 as upside target.

Three paths near term:
- Bull case: supportive macro, spot ETF inflows, BTC back to high-$60,000s, Strategy’s mNAV >1.22x, accretion holds.
- Base case: chop at $60,000–$65,000, OI normalizes, traders wait for Fed, mNAV near parity.
- Bear case: $60,000 fails, mNAV revisits ≤0.99x, raising risk Strategy must sell BTC, adding structural sell pressure (Coinspeaker on potential BTC sales).

Key risk is mNAV below 1.22x, the stated breakeven including debt and preferreds. Below this, each share sale destroys value and Strategy’s steady BTC bid fades (Coinspeaker on mNAV and buying pressure). The leveraged BTC-proxy model needs a premium. Without it, Strategy shifts from accumulator to holder, changing market structure.