Analyst says Bitcoin expansion ended, no rally until complacency breaks
Tony Severino warns of a reset. “No rally until complacency is crushed.”
The market is split on a base for new highs near $70,000 versus a pause in a broader downtrend with lower levels ahead. Bitcoin sits in the crossfire.
Severino takes a cautious stance. He says bullish complacency must break first before any real rally.
“This destruction and reset is necessary for growth again. But not until complacency is crushed,” he wrote on X here. “Same asset, different environment = different outcome distribution,” he added in a follow-up.
This theme isn’t new for him. In February, he argued a 16‑year cyclical peak may already be in.
His downside map is explicit. He outlined a -72% maximum drawdown from a projected October 2025 peak at $126,000 to a ~$34,000 bottom before a sustainable base forms.
