Polymarket puts CLARITY Act at 53% majority, 32% for 60-vote threshold

Polymarket traders reduced the implied odds that the CLARITY Act reaches a simple Senate majority on its first final-passage vote: 53% for “Above 50” votes, down 8 points. The probability of exceeding 60 votes is 32%. Total market volume: $39,633. The market closes December 31, 2026.

How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? Polymarket

Market read: coalition size and thresholds

• The key spread: 53% odds for ≥51 votes versus 32% for ≥61 votes. This indicates expectations for a workable majority but skepticism about a filibuster-proof coalition.
• Ladder pricing compresses above the majority line: “Above 55” is 39% and “Above 58” is 37%, both down over 10 points, signaling trimmed expectations for broad bipartisan support.
• Recent signals: reports indicate Democrats rejected the final version and offered a counter, the New York Attorney General urged Congress to block the bill, and odds of the bill becoming law this year fell to 20% in related prediction tracking.

What the contract measures

• Resolution basis: the first Senate final-passage vote on qualifying crypto market-structure legislation before January 1, 2027.
• Excludes: committee votes, motions to proceed, cloture votes, and amendments.
• Procedural note: the 60-vote cloture threshold is a separate gate and not directly priced by this market.
• Voice vote or unanimous consent outcome: resolves “Yes” automatically regardless of the numerical threshold in the contract title.
• No qualifying vote by deadline: resolves “No.”

Legislative status

• House: H.R. 3633 passed 294–134 on July 17, 2025.
• Senate: Banking Committee reported an amended substitute on June 1, 2026.
• Timing: no confirmed date for a final-passage vote.

Interpretation: majority plausible, supermajority uncertain

• Pricing signals a plausible path to a simple majority on a first final-passage vote.
• Expectations for a 60+ vote coalition are weaker, reflecting the distinct challenge of overcoming a filibuster.
• The contract measures vote count, not enactment; resolution does not require passage, presidential signature, or final settlement of SEC and CFTC jurisdiction over digital assets.