Polymarket Bettors Predict Justin Trudeau’s Resignation by Friday
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's resignation appears imminent, with bettors on Polymarket speculating on the timing of his announcement. There are contracts with significant volumes asking if he will resign by February or April, and another regarding a potential election triggered by opposition parties by spring.
Interest in Trudeau's resignation surged following reports from major Canadian newspapers suggesting an announcement could occur as early as Monday or before a Liberal Party caucus meeting scheduled for Wednesday. The Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail report differing timelines for the announcement.
Bettors express skepticism about an immediate resignation. A contract betting on a Monday announcement shows over $45,000 in volume but only a 24% chance of Trudeau stepping down that day. Another contract regarding a resignation by Wednesday suggests a 72% probability, although it has lower volume at around $10,000. A third contract predicts an 80% chance he will resign by Friday.
Despite the reports, Reuters cites sources indicating that Trudeau has not yet made a decision. Angus Reid, a Canadian pollster, indicates a 22% approval rating for the Prime Minister. Current polling suggests that if an election were held now, Trudeau's Liberals would win 46 seats, while Conservatives would secure 225, achieving a parliamentary majority.
On Polymarket, bettors also assign a 3% chance that Canada could become the 51st U.S. state by July, a concept initially presented as a joke by President-elect Donald Trump.