BEARISH 📉 : ETF outflows push Solana to $85 despite strong on-chain activity

Solana market update

Solana trades near $85. Down about 70% from its 2025 high. Lost about 10% over the last 14 days.
On-chain activity remains strong. January DEX volume about $117B. Around 160M daily transactions.
Sell-off aligns with broad risk-off. Spot crypto volumes fell from about $2T in October to $1T by late January. Liquidity thinned. Markets price a more hawkish Federal Reserve after President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh.
Stablecoin market cap down about $10B. Capital moved off-chain. Institutional flows negative. Spot Solana ETFs saw $11.9M single-day outflow and about $8.92M for the week. Corporate treasuries sit on about $1.4B in unrealized losses.
Key levels. Support at $83.5. Resistance at $87.5 and $88.8.
Bull scenario closes above $88.4 on rising volume and opens a path to $95–$100.
Base scenario holds a range between $84 and $88.
Bear scenario breaks $83.5 and accelerates selling to lower, untested levels. Some technicians warn of risk toward $44–$30 if a bear flag resolves lower.
Alpenglow upgrade is a longer-term catalyst. Upgrades rarely change short-term momentum.