Rising yields and ETF outflows push Bitcoin back below $80,000

Snapshot

• Bitcoin trades at $77,450, +0.9% in 24h. Down about 6% since May 15 from ~$82,400.
• US Treasury yields rose; MOVE index climbed from 69% to 85%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows.
• 30-day implied volatility for Bitcoin (BVIV) ~42%, near the 2026 low of 40%, despite higher bond-market volatility.
• Derivatives show positive funding while open interest declines.

Levels

• Support holds in the low $76,000s.
• Resistance at $77,300–$77,350. A break higher signals easing sell pressure.
• $80,000 remains the next major resistance on rebound.

Scenarios

• Bull: Yields stabilize and ETF inflows resume. Move toward $80,000.
• Base: Range trade between $76,000 and $78,000 while macro uncertainty persists.
• Bear: Yields rise and ETF outflows continue. Test below $76,000 and expose broader structural weakness. Compressed implied volatility suggests a larger move is underpriced.

Catalysts

• MOVE index and FOMC guidance on rates remain key for risk assets.