Coinspeaker
2 hours ago
Bullish

Bitcoin holds $82,300 support after $16B options expiry clears

3 min

Bitcoin absorbed the largest options expiry of the cycle without significant volatility: $15.9 billion in BTC options and $2.13 billion in ETH options expired on Deribit, totaling $16.53 billion. Post-expiry, hedging pressures are reduced, creating a cleaner tape for spot-driven moves. Bitcoin trades near $84,590, up 1.41% in 24 hours. Reported volume is $34.31 billion, down 27.13%, consistent with typical post-expiry activity declines.

Options Structure and Positioning

Max pain clustered at $75,000 to $78,000 while spot held above that range. Max pain marks the level where the most options expire worthless, benefiting option sellers. The gap indicates prior positioning was misaligned: Bitcoin fell to $75,000 last week, then rallied above $87,000, pushing many near-$76,000 expiries deep in the money. The put-to-call ratio ranged from 0.69 to 0.84, indicating a call-heavy skew and a bullish lean into expiry. This setup implies sellers defended lower levels rather than driving price downward.

Post-Expiry Dynamics

Expiry days often pin price as dealers hedge gamma by trading spot to stay delta-neutral. After settlement, those hedges unwind, allowing price to reflect net demand. U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs reported sustained inflows: $190.7 million on September 24 led by BlackRock’s IBIT at $162.6 million, following $346.9 million on September 23 and $714.7 million on September 22. Total ETF net assets: $111.28 billion. Cumulative inflows since launch: $57.87 billion.

Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow

Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow Coinglass

Options positioning signals a bullish bias beyond expiry: traders built butterfly structures pointing to $95,000 targets by October 30. Deribit open interest exceeded $50 billion, with about one-third clearing in this cycle.

Technical Levels and AI-Flagged Ranges

BTCUSDT Price Chart 1D

BTCUSDT Price Chart 1D

Structure: Bitcoin holds above $82,303, a prior rejection level in May and September. The 50-day EMA at $76,476 crossed above the 200-day EMA at $73,970.

  • Key support: $82,300. Daily closes above this level preserve the uptrend structure.
  • Near-term resistance: $88,000 to $90,000. A break opens the path to the $95,000 area aligned with options targets.
  • Higher objective: $98,330, the last hurdle ahead of $100,000. On weakness, $73,836 and the 200-day EMA define the backstop that has held pullbacks since August.

Risk: Expiry removes both ceiling and floor effects. Dealers no longer need to buy dips for hedging, and post-expiry liquidity often thins, amplifying moves.

Confirmation: Monitor the next daily closes. Holding $82,300 alongside continued ETF inflows increases the probability of a test of $88,000 to $90,000.