4 March 2025
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Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $1 Million Amid Recession
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes discusses Bitcoin's potential trajectory in his blog post "KISS of Death," predicting a price surge to $1 million during Donald Trump's renewed presidency, following a recession. Key points include:
- Hayes emphasizes the importance of liquidity as the primary driver of asset prices.
- He argues Trump will pursue debt-financed policies rather than austerity, contrasting him with Andrew Mellon.
- Trump’s budget cuts could trigger a recession, leading to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and increased liquidity.
- Hayes estimates that up to $3.24 trillion could be injected into the economy through various Fed policy shifts.
- He links historical stimulus measures, suggesting a potential 10x increase for Bitcoin from past lows.
- Despite long-term bullishness, he anticipates Bitcoin may revisit the $70,000 to $80,000 range short-term.
- Hayes views current market chaos as an opportunity for monetary expansion rather than Bitcoin's decline.
As of now, BTC is trading at $83,725.