Coinspeaker
2 hours ago
Bullish

Strive bought 6,106 BTC; research sets $185K–$215K target by 2029

3 min

A $215,000 Bitcoin target from BIT Research is circulating with an explicit timeline: 2028 or 2029. The projection is based on holder cost basis and historical cycle multiples, not on near-term chart patterns. Current market action: BTC trades near $83,826 after consolidating above the $82,303 breakout level.

Order Flow and Accumulation

Spot order book shows steady bid interest near current prices.

Who Bought 6,106 BTC in a Month?

Strive added 6,106 BTC between August 24 and September 25 at an average of $80,375, spending about $491 million. The asset manager now holds 27,462 BTC worth about $2.3 billion, built through 34 purchases since September 2025. Year to date in 2026, Strive increased holdings by 19,937 BTC, up 265%.

Valuation: Strive’s market cap is $2.9 billion versus $2.3 billion in BTC holdings, implying an mNAV of 1.26. The premium depends on continued accumulation.

Bitcoin Price Framework: Source of the $215K Target

BIT Research uses the True Market Mean, the average price paid by active holders, currently $76,897. Historically, BTC has traded at least 85% above this level, indicating roughly $142,000. Applying historical cycle multiples of 1.3 to 1.5 on that base yields $185,000 to $215,000.

Technical confirmations already in place: BTC recaptured the 21-week moving average at $69,272 and the March 2024 high at $73,084. A debt-based fair value model estimates about $105,000.

Timing: BIT Research specifies the $200,000 area around 2028–2029 with uncertainty. The note flags stretched conditions after a rapid advance and allows for drawdowns before higher levels.

AI Levels to Watch

BTCUSDT Chart 1D

BTCUSDT Chart 1D TradingView

  • Line to hold: $82,303. Daily closes above confirm the breakout.
  • Next test: $88,000–$90,000. Nearest significant supply zone.
  • Cycle level: $98,330. Final barrier before $100,000. Below the breakout: supports at the 50-day EMA $77,815, the 200-day EMA $74,452, then $73,836.

Trend context: Accumulation by institutions like Strive, a holder cost basis below spot, and rising moving averages support the uptrend. The $215,000 target is cycle-based for 2028–2029. The operative level now is $82,303.

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