Attacks shut key Middle East oil routes, threaten 30 million barrels

Multiple Middle East oil routes are offline or at risk, putting a large share of global supply in jeopardy relative to a roughly 100 million barrel per day market. Source: The Kobeissi Letter.

Key disruptions

- Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline shut down after recent attacks: up to 4 million barrels per day of exports at risk.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait at risk of closure: up to 9 million barrels per day threatened.
- Strait of Hormuz operating at about 20% of pre-Iran War capacity: approximately 15 million barrels per day removed from flows.

Scale and overlap

- Combined impact approaches 30 million barrels per day either offline or at risk.
- Some routes overlap, but the potential net disruption remains large relative to global supply.

Implication

- The magnitude of potential supply loss is severe by historical standards and could materially tighten the oil market.