US diesel prices hit record $6.20 per gallon, up 78%

US diesel prices reached a record 6.20 dollars per gallon, up 78 percent over nine months. California set a record at 8.14 dollars per gallon, with some areas nearing 9 dollars. The surge aligns with peak diesel demand and historically low supply. Inflation expectations are rising.

Key figures

- National average: 6.20 dollars per gallon
- Nine-month change: plus 78 percent
- California: 8.14 dollars per gallon, some areas near 9 dollars

Stated drivers

- Peak seasonal diesel demand
- Historically low supply levels

Market implications

- Higher diesel costs increase transportation and production expenses, raising input costs across supply chains
- Inflation expectations rising increase the probability of tighter financial conditions and higher yields
- Risk assets face pressure under higher inflation and rates
- Crypto impact: short-term bias bearish due to risk-off conditions; inflation-hedge narratives may support selective assets over longer horizons

Source: The Kobeissi Letter