Bitcoin PnL Index maintains downtrend, does not trigger bottom signal

Bitcoin PnL index keeps sliding. Bottoms historically followed after it turned negative, not before.

Community analyst Maartunn says the 365‑day MA of the PnL index for Bitcoin has been falling since Q4 2025 and remains above zero, so the market hasn’t reached the “undervalued” zone yet. Source: Maartunn on X.

What’s in the PnL index. It blends MVRV, NUPL, and LTH/STH SOPR into one valuation readout. Background: NewsBTC explainer on the PnL index.

Cycle signal. In prior cycles, bear‑market bottoms lined up with the PnL index dipping into red on the 365‑day MA. Today it’s still positive. Chart and history: Maartunn on X. Context on bear‑market dynamics: NewsBTC cycle analysis.

This cycle differs. The PnL index showed two similar peaks near the Q1 and Q4 2025 tops instead of one dominant peak seen before. Chart: Maartunn on X.

STH whales under stress. “Short‑Term Holder Whales are now sitting on −$16.4B in unrealized P&L,” Maartunn notes, the deepest this cycle. Source: Maartunn on X.

Headline
Bitcoin PnL 365‑day MA falls; STH whales sit on −$16.4B unrealized losses