BTC-S&P correlation warns 70–80% Bitcoin drop after bounce
BTC–S&P correlation signal flashes. Analyst warns of a crash pattern.
Bitcoin stays in a bear since Oct 2025. A 19% flash crash hit from the $126,000 ATH. Price then bottomed near $60,000 and moved into consolidation.
Last month, BTC gained 4.89%. It traded up to $75,000.
Now it trades at $68,584. The day change is −2.41%. Volume fell 41.21% week over week. A $75,000 breakout failed last week.
The 20‑day BTC–S&P 500 correlation fell to about −0.5, then bounced to roughly −0.10. Market analyst Tony Severino flags this setup as risky. He writes, “Historically, when Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 drops to −0.5 and then turns sharply up, it is a warning sign that the stock market is going to collapse and take BTC with it.” Source.
He adds there is “usually a bounce first.” He cites a 10–17 week rebound before drawdown. The current bounce from early February is about 8 weeks old. Source
In 2018, 2020, and 2022, similar setups preceded 70–80% drops from the bounce peak. Source
Key levels and stats:
- ATH $126,000 then −19% flash crash
- Local bottom near $60,000
- Last month +4.89%, high $75,000
- Now $68,584, 24h −2.41%, volume −41.21%
