Whales selling and BTC dominance keep XRP in $1.35–$1.40 range

XRP slid about 8% after failing at $1.60. It’s back in the $1.35–$1.40 band. Analyst Sam Daodu explains why rallies keep fading and what must change.

Key headwind one. Bitcoin dominance stays near 58.6% in 2026 and above 58% most of the time. Alt rallies usually start below 50%. Capital has not rotated yet. Institutions either stay in BTC or leave crypto. Daodu says XRP likely won’t run until BTC clears and holds $75,000 (MSN, NewsBTC).

Key headwind two. Whales keep taking profits since the $3.65 top in July 2025. Daodu estimates roughly $6B in XRP sold by large holders. Many bought below $0.65. They sell into strength and feed exchanges with supply (MSN).

Key headwind three. Many holders sit underwater near today’s price. Glassnode data cited by Daodu shows 60% of circulating XRP has a cost basis above current levels. Average basis is about $1.44. Sellers emerge near $1.45 to break even (NewsBTC).

ETFs don’t absorb enough supply. XRP ETF AuM fell from January’s $1.65B peak to about $1B as price dropped. Inflows run near $1.9M per week. At that pace, only ~$100M would enter by year‑end. Daodu says that’s too small to offset selling (NewsBTC).

One possible catalyst. The US CLARITY Act could define XRP as a commodity and reduce regulatory risk. That might open doors for institutions. Banks could then settle in XRP instead of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin, increasing demand if adopted (NewsBTC, NewsBTC).

Bottom line. Multiple shifts must align. BTC dominance must ease. Whale selling must slow. ETF inflows must scale. Or regulation must unlock new buyers. Until then, Daodu expects short, capped rallies near the recent range (MSN).