Bitcoin fails to break $74,000 resistance; analyst says structural bottom not formed

2 min

Bitcoin retests $74,000 after a 4% bounce. Price faded to ~$72,215, near the top of its consolidation range.

CryptoQuant’s Sunny Mom says the bottom isn’t in. She calls the market a “stress test” phase. Source.

Key on-chain signals
- 6–12 month holders are underwater. Their realized price clusters near $100,000, adding sell pressure until it clears. CryptoQuant.
- MVRV near 1.2 sits in the DCA zone. Structural bottoms usually form below 1.0. CryptoQuant.
- Long-term holders (>2 years) need to exceed 20% of Realized Cap for a firm floor. They are ~15% now. CryptoQuant. Additional context on LTH dynamics here.

Two paths to a true bottom
- Black swan flush. A sharp crash triggers forced liquidations among high-cost holders, setting a floor in 1–2 months. CryptoQuant.
- “The Great Boring.” Institutions hold, price ranges $60k–$80k, and the bottoming stretches into late 2026 or early 2027. CryptoQuant.

Sunny sees a “Value Bottom” fit for DCA, not a “Structural Bottom.” Expect chop in the $60k–$70k band. CryptoQuant.

Headline
Bitcoin retests $74k; CryptoQuant: bottom not in, two scenarios ahead

Bitcoin