Analyst says Bitcoin recovery remains bear rally as STHs, whales sell

CryptoQuant: Bitcoin rebound still looks like a bear rally; 345k BTC aged into LTHs, STHs sent 60k BTC to exchanges

CryptoQuant’s Maartunn calls the rebound a bear market rally. On‑chain shows stronger LTH base, but near‑term selling capped gains.

Bitcoin stabilized after a February low, then recovered. Maartunn says the move aligns with a bear rally pattern (X thread).

The LTH 30‑day supply change was negative from mid‑2025 to January 2026. That signaled distribution by long‑term holders (X thread).

Since late January, the metric flipped, implying coins entered LTH supply. In the last month, 345,000 BTC matured into LTHs. “That’s structural strength building under the surface,” said Maartunn (X thread).

STHs added selling pressure. About 60,000 BTC hit exchanges. STHs also realized losses on transfers (X thread).

Whales with 100+ BTC increased exchange inflows. That added to supply on the market (X thread).

Accumulation from Strategy continued during the period. The firm added 13,927 BTC recently (NewsBTC report).

“For now, this still looks like a bear market rally… But a strong breakout could quickly shift the trend,” Maartunn wrote (X thread).

Price action cooled. BTC briefly topped $78,000 last week, then pulled back to $75,300 (X thread).